10.01.2007

68 Percent of Baseball Players Are Kinda Dumb

What a Play-In game. Too bad I only saw 12.5 innings.

A recent Sports Illustrated poll asked 257 baseball players (nonpitchers) "Which individual hitting statistic is the most meaningful?"

Their answers:
No. 1 Runs Batted In (41%)
No. 2 On-Base Percentage (19%)
No. 3 Batting Average (13%)
No. 4 On-Base Plus Slugging OPS (11%)
No. 5 Runs (6%)
No. 6 Home Runs (4%)
No. 7 Batting average with runners in scoring position (2%)
No. 8 Tie: Two-Out RBIs, Slugging, Strikeouts

It's easy to see why traditionalists would label this stat so important. As an offensive athlete, the ability to produce a run for your team is paramount. Big RBI numbers, on the surface, appear to prove you can provide these runs. They make up the third prong of the Triple Crown in baseball, so that adds to the mystique. However, more than showing ability, a high RBI count is often indicative the high on-base percentage of others. Hence, RBI is mostly about opportunity. A meaningful statistic for offensive performers should be something that isolates their output to what is truly their output.

Depending on what I want out of a player (or where I am going to bat him), the most important of these traditional stats is going to be either OPS or on-base percentage. High in the order, I'll want my hitter who's best at getting on base. Later in the order I'll want someone who's going to drive the leadoff hitters in. This is why Juan Pierre is a spare as a leadoff batter. He makes far too many outs without getting on base. Hence, the Dodgers' "power hitters" have no one to drive in and our leading RBI man has 87. Both on-base and OPS take walks into account. The goal of baseball is to use your 27 outs wisely. The wisest way is to not use them (steals, bunts). OPS shows a good mix of power and the ability to get on base. If you don't go into deeper stats (such as VORP, Runs Created or EQA) OPS is the best way to judge a player's singular contribution. If I am a singles hitter or I'm a general manager who cannot afford to fill my roster with power hitters, I am going to focus on who can get on base so the power in my lineup will have someone to drive in.

General managers without the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs budget should always focus on limiting outs. Players who get on base avoid outs.

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