Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

First spring games in two days...

I'd rather have the best rotation in baseball than the best lineup — unless I could have both. One man in a pitching rotation usually means a lot more to his team than one man in a lineup. The ideal rotation features Nos. 1-5 starters (although many, including me, believe the ideal rotation would feature only four starters).

There are far fewer than 30 No. 1 pitchers, so some teams have to try and compensate with depth rather than flash. Below are examples of starters for each traditional starting position (in strictest terms).
No. 1: Johan Santana: 18-7, 9.44 Ks per 9 innings, 1.00 whip, 5.21 K to Walk(BB) ratio, 2.77 ERA. The best pitcher in the game. Others: Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb and Roy Oswalt.
No. 2: Jason Schmidt: 11-9, 7.59 Ks per 9, 1.26 whip, 2.25 K/BB, 3.59 ERA. Was a No. 1 until last year. Others: Jake Peavy, John Lackey and Ben Sheets.
No. 3: Derek Lowe: 16-8, 1.27 whip, 2.29 K/BB, 3.63 ERA, 3.48 groundout/flyball out ratio. Lowe is really borderline between a No. 3 and a No. 2. Others: Jake Westbrook, Dan Haren and Greg Maddux.
No. 4: Gil Meche: 11-8, 7.52 Ks/9, 1.43 whip, 1.86 K/BB, 4.48 ERA. The $55 million man better become a No. 3 or No. 2 this year; he has the potential. Others: Joe Blanton, Woody Williams and David Wells.
No. 5: Jason Marquis: 16-14, 4.45 ks/9, 1.52 whip, 1.28 K/BB, 6.02 ERA. This is why the Cubs won't win. Others: Jeff Weaver, Casey Fossum and Jae Seo.

The Cream Rotations
Each team is categorized according this mix of subjective and objective factors: Depth (10), Potential (10), Stuff (10) and cold Stats (10). Stats will place less emphasis on ERAs (which can be overrated) and records. Park tendencies will also be taken into account.
1. Boston Red Sox: 38 pts. Depth (9), Potential (10), Stuff (10), Stats (9)
Last year's staff was a bit of a letdown, but this year features some new faces that will lead to instant improvement.
Curt Schilling is a known quantity, but he remains an injury risk.
Daisuke Matsuzaka has command of at least four pitches, and all were on display at the World Baseball Classic as he owned everyone. He is projected to be a No. 1 starter, but I'll have to see him pitch against the Yankees first.
Josh Beckett has disgusting stuff that should be back in form this year. Last year his ERA spiked, but everything else looked pretty good (he's only 26, after all).
Many people who think they know something about baseball have been complaining about Jonathon Papelbon's move to the rotation. Grow up. I would rather have a pitcher with his stuff give me six-seven innings each trip rather than one every few days. His slick slider and splitter combo should be sustainable over the extended innings. The only question is his health.
Tim Wakefield is the only real weak spot for the Red Sox. Knuckleballers either have it or they don't on any particular day. He'll get raked and he'll dominate intermittently all year.
Matt Clement is past his prime, but he might still have enough in the tank to spell one of these starters should they go down.

2. Anaheim Angels: 37 pts. Depth (10), Potential (10), Stuff (9), Stats (8)
The biggest problems the Halos face are injury and sustainability. If the youth movement holds, this team is death in the postseason.
Bartolo Colon won a Cy Young he didn't deserve two years ago. Last year he suffered a rotator cuff injury, and he is projected to miss the start of the season. Colon still throws heavy gas, and, when healthy, can pitch well over 200 innings.
John Lackey is the Angels' current ace. He coupled a 1.26 WHIP with a 3.56 ERA last year. He has a plus curve and a good fastball and change. And he's only 28. This should be his career year.
Kelvim Escobar probably won't throw more than 200 innings this year — he has a tendency to get injured — but when he pitches he is as solid a No. 3 as there is in the game. Great fastball, solid moving pitches.
The Angels saved themselves the heartache of watching Ervin Santana lead some other team through the postseason. Holding onto Santana was the Halos' best move. The 24-year-old was 16-8 with a 1.23 WHIP, and opponents batted only .241 against him. Best fastball on the team, maybe in the top five of the majors. He'll be No. 2 soon.
Jered Weaver, so far, is everything his brother Jeff should have been. The kid was part of the best rookie A.L. pitching class I've ever seen. Last year he went 11-2 with a ridiculous 1.03 WHIP and a 2.56 ERA. Opponents hit only .209 against him. He may letdown a bit this year, but not enough to worry.
On the horizon for the Angels is Nick Adenhart. He may be as good as Weaver and Santana. Book it.

3. (tie) Detroit Tigers: 34 pts. Depth (8), Potential (8), Stuff (8), Stats (10)
The World Series' surprise team boasted the best team ERA (3.84) in the majors last year.
How long will Kenny Rogers last? He's not a power pitcher, but he has enough in the tank to control a big league game. I just keep wondering if he's out of gas (or pine tar).
Jeremy Bonderman is a solid pitcher. He is a power pitcher with a plus fastball. He threw 8.5 Ks/9 last year and opponents hit only .259 against him. He'll be better this year (among the top eight pitchers), and he's only 24.
I still feel Nate Robertson is a little overrated. He's 29, so I don't see him improving much on last year's stats. His sub-4 ERA was solid, even for an overrated stat. He adds to the Tigers' depth, but he's not a big potential star, like the next guy.
Justin Verlander is the best young pitcher in the game. He will not decline this year. He has a fastball that touches 99 mph and a biting curveball. He was 17-9 last year and got the Tigers to the World Series. I picked him up as soon as he was available in all my fantasy leagues last year, and he made a genius out of me. If his arm holds (and the Tigers offense is better than it looks) he could win 20 games this year.
Mike Maroth is a far cry from his 20-loss season a few years back. That said, he has health issues and an underwhelming fastball.
Andrew Miller is the next real thing for the Tigers. If Rogers or Maroth go down, I could see Miller getting an early look ala Weaver and Matt Garza last year.

3. (tie) Los Angeles Dodgers: 34 pts. Depth (10), Potential (9), Stuff (8), Stats (7)
It should be an interesting year for my team. It's nice to root for a team whose biggest pitching problem is getting starts to everyone who deserves them.
Jason Schmidt is the Dodgers' first ace (loosely defined) since Kevin Brown. A down year for Schmidt included a 3.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and an opponents' batting average of .238. Schmidt will be solid, and if he's healthy, he could be dominant.
Derek Lowe is a great innings eater. His sinker is one of the better pitches in the game, and his 3.48 groundball to flyball ratio shows this. He is solid, not amazing. I've also noticed that he seems to get better after the All-Star break.
Brad Penny should be traded before the All-Star break for some power. Still, it's nice to have last year's All-Star game starter in the back pocket. Penny can throw a mean fastball (when it's on) and snap off a decent curve. The biggest knock on Penny is his disaster of a season after the All-Star break. You want pitchers to finish the race, not detour to the glue factory.
Randy Wolf is an interesting, if unnecessary, addition to the Dodgers rotation. In limited action last season after his Tommy John surgery, he was a bit of a letdown. It has been said that after pitchers have the kind of surgery he had, they can be a lot better than before they went under the knife. We'll see what shows up.
The fifth starter spot is up for grabs between four pitchers: Chad Billingsley, Hong-Chih Kuo, Mark Hendrickson and Brett Tomko. Tomko and Hendrickson really have no business back in this starting rotation, but they could fit in elsewhere. Billingsley performed reasonably well in his first year in the bigs. His walk tallies were high (and therefore WHIP), but opponents hit only .272 against him and he had a 3.80 ERA. He should continue to improve, no matter what role he earns. Kuo is my pick for the Dodgers' fifth starter. He had a very compelling stat line as a starter. In 29 innings as a starter, the lefty struck out 35 batters and walked only seven. He had a 1.19 WHIP and opponents hit only .257 against him.

5. Cleveland Indians: 32 pts. Depth (8), Potential (9), Stuff (8), Stats (7)
The A.L. Central will be the deepest division in baseball again. The Indians should contend for a Wild Card slot if the offense shows up.
C. C. Sabathia turned in an incredible, under-the-radar performance last year. If people focused on more than win-loss records, more may have noticed the most improved player last year. He owned a 3.22 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and boasted a 3.91 K/BB ratio. This guy became a No. 1 last year, and he's only 26!
Jake Westbrook had a bit of a ho-hum year for someone with a plus sinker. His ground/fly ratio was 2.72 and it could get better. Sinkerballers should always come away with wins and innings.
Cliff Lee was 14-11 last year, and that's all some people need to give him a silver star. He gets innings and he limits opponents' batting averages, but he doesn't blow me away as much as he does other cranks. He has a good mix of pitches, but none really scare me. He's no spare, but he's no Sabathia either.
Paul Byrd is over the hill at age 36. He's not a power pitcher like Clemens and Smoltz, and he's no Glavine or Maddux around the plate. Byrd's going to put balls in play and get injured. Tribe fans better hope Adam Miller matures fast.
Jeremy Sowers may be the fastest riser on the team. The kid is 23 years old, and he was the top dog on the Indians farmland last year. Sowers' innings were limited last year to preserve his arm (see Francisco Liriano and Felix Hernandez), but he should get a few more this year and excel. His rookie WHIP was 1.19 and allowed opponents only a .252 batting average. I think he'll win 15 games if he starts 25 (big IF).

Honorable Mention
6. San Diego Padres: Chris Young has "ace" written all over him. Jake Peavy should rebound from a down year.
7. Florida Marlins: No-hitter ring any bells? This is really the hardest team to leave off the top five. Look at these guys: Dontrelle Willis, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson and Scott Olsen. The only question is, will they let down?
8. Chicago White Sox: Traded Freddy Garcia for a bevy of young guns. Should turn out well.
9. New York Yankees: Does Chien-Ming Wang fall flat? Is Phillip Hughes everything everyone says he is?
(tie) 10. Philadelphia Phillies (Cole Hamels!) and Milwaukee Brewers (Sheets!, Gallardo!)

Oscar Follow

It's been years since I've gotten to watch the Oscar telecast, and last night's was a nice reminder of what I like about them. I really thought the producers did a great job of making the "boring" awards interesting by showing the nominees in their work. I'm not much of a movie techie, but some of that work is fascinating.

I didn't enter any work polls this year, but, since there were so many surprises, I think the complete ballot I filled out last week would have been good enough for first or second place back at the newspaper.

The Surprises:
For me, there were two huge disappointments. The biggest surprise/disappointment was Pan's Labyrinth's win for Best Cinematography. I really think this was the biggest upset in years. The best filmed movie of the year (the best filmed movie since Saving Private Ryan) was hands down Children of Men.
The second big surprise was Pan's Labyrinth's loss in the Best Foreign Language Film category. The Lives of Others? I guess voters just can't handle fantasy.
The other surprise was Alan Arkin's Best Supporting Actor win. Most picked Eddie Murphy to take it.

My Ballot
On my complete ballot I correctly named 15 of 24 winners. My short blog ballot finished 6 of 11. Here's how I did on my complete ballot.

Correct
Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Film Editing, Best Documentary Feature, Best Documentary Short, Best Supporting Actress, Visual Effects, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Live Action Short Film, Makeup, and Art Direction.

Incorrect
Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Cinematography, Costume Design, Supporting Actor, Foreign Language Film, Original Song, Original Score, and Animated Short Film.

Hed Bustology

"Spurs Beats Jazz"

If in noticing the above headline's noun-verb disagreement you became uncontrollably violent, then you definitely need to see a shrink, and you might be a good replacement for my former copy desk chief. I wrote this headline during my first three months on my first job out of college. The headline appeared on an inside sports page — specifically the NBA/WNBA page that was my charge that fateful evening. In my defense, I was loaded down with livestock-grade tranquilizers to numb the pain in my lower left wisdom tooth, which badly needed a root canal. My original headline was "Duncan Beats Jazz," referring to the Spurs' center's domination of that evening's NBA contest. In order to run a lead-hed sized font, (read: really big headline) I needed to shorten the headline. Unfortunately, my proofreaders and I failed to catch the fact that I had left the verb singular. This would not have been a big issue (for some) if the Jazz (or Magic or Heat) had won the game. However, my mistake did not make it past the copy chief, who roundly thrashed me as I returned to the rim the next day.

"Arkansas Hall Of Fame To Inducted Former HU Coach"

The above headline found its way into the worst possible location of the Bison this week: front page, above the fold. The first edition to arrive on time this year greeted me as I arrived to work this morning. I was worried about the printing on a couple of pages (you never know what you are going to get) so I popped one out, and I noticed the hed bust immediately. I asked my assistant if we had enough White Out to cover the whole shipment.

The original headline was "Former HU Coach To Be Inducted Into Hall Of Fame." I'm not the world's most ardent believer in the fallibility of the passive-voice sentence, but I thought this hed in particular would read better actively. I wrote on the proof's margins the first headline, minus the noun-verb problem. This, unfortunately, occurred at 11 p.m. The proof was returned and considered "corrected" until it was packaged and exported to PDF the next morning. No one had rechecked the "corrected" page (copy editors and advisers included) before the final process.

So who's to blame? The Bison policy, as it is with every paper I've ever worked for, should be to reprint pages that have had significant changes requested by editors or copy editors. This is usually the case, but Thursday we made the editor's critical mistake of assuming corrections had been made on one page as we turned our attention to more pressing pages. The page should have been reprinted after the headline change.

Unfortunately, all of us as a staff share in this failure. We should have followed Bison protocol on this. At a larger newspaper, one copy editor will handle press duties each night. This involves traveling to wherever the press is held (for many bigger papers, the newsroom is centrally located while the press is tucked away across town). When the editor gets to the press, he or she has precious little time to check all the trouble spots in an entire paper while the press continues to adjust their settings and plates to find the best printing. Once the press workers have their settings figured, the presses roll. The only way to stop them is to find a MAJOR mistake. A front-page, above-the-fold hed bust would definitely apply. Unfortunately for the Bison, we have no access to our press, and we have to rely on getting it right the first time.

These things happen, even to the most reputable of newspapers. As with any university-funded publication, many people on campus view the student paper as an emasculated tool of the administration, so this slight won't affect their opinion. For others, this is one more knock on our credibility. It will take some work to convince them otherwise, but it's something I know the staff cares greatly about.

Spring Fever

Happy start of spring training!

For the next couple of months I’m going to focus most of my attention on the run up to baseball season. I think it’s important for me to briefly define a lot of the things I’ll be referring to during the season.

For the diehard fan, the information will be a bit of a refresher. For the casual fan, the info may answer some questions you did not know you had. For non-fans, read and join the ranks of the baseball cranks.

Terms to know:
Pitchers and catchers: No professional sport has a preseason quite like baseball. In 1886 the White Stockings headed to Hot Springs, Ark., for what may be the first instance of spring training. Around the middle of February, teams compel their batteries (a battery is the combo of the pitcher and catcher) to show up before the rest of the team to prepare for the coming season. Teams also set an early reporting date for position players soon after pitchers and catchers report. The mandatory reporting date for all players is usually during the week following the pitchers and catchers' reporting date.

Grapefruit and Cactus leagues: Since Spring Training begins in the middle of winter, teams set up their spring headquarters in either Florida or Arizona. Florida has been the most popular destination, especially for East Coast teams. Arizona has gained popularity in recent years because teams are often closer together and weather is more stable. Currently, 18 teams make up the Grapefruit League (Florida citrus), and 12 headquarter in the Cactus League (Arizona flora). Grapefruit teams play other Grapefruit teams and Cactus teams do the same.

MLB Draft (AKA Rule 4): Major League Baseball takes two days in June to run through at least 50 rounds of first-year player selection. Draft order is compiled according to the previous year's won-loss records. The draft often includes sandwich rounds between the first few rounds. During this time, teams may select newly graduated high school seniors or juniors and seniors from the college ranks. Foreign players are usually signed outside of the draft. The MLB Draft is not nearly as highly regarded as those of the NBA and NFL. This is because it takes even the highest draft picks years to break into the majors. The draft may not be as exciting, but the MLB minor league system is the stuff of dreams for the NFL and NBA. After players are drafted, they will sign a bonus and report to a rookie-level team or they will refuse to sign and enter or return to college and maintain their amateur designation. First-round picks can expect signing bonuses in excess of $2 million.

Rule 5 Draft: The Rule 5 draft is held each year in during baseball's Winter Meetings. The Rule 5 was established in order to allow more movement among players. The Rule 5 helps good players see playing time when they’re stuck in the minor leagues behind stars on their original team’s depth chart. The Rule 5 consists of one round in which teams can select one player from any other team’s minor league system. The players cannot be on the team’s 40-man roster. To protect their best players, teams will often add their best up-and-coming players to the roster just before the Rule 5. After the teams make their selections from the other teams, they have to pay $50k for the player and keep him on their 25-man roster for the entire season. If the player doesn’t stay with the major league team, they team that selected him must offer him back to his original team at a discounted rate. If the original team doesn’t want the player back, the new team can add him to their minor league rosters. The most successful recent Rule 5 draftee was multiple Cy Young winner Johan Santana, whom the Marlins drafted from the Houston Astros and traded to the Twins. It's also worth mentioning that the Dodgers lost farmhand Roberto Clemente through the very same system.

Player compensation: Major League Baseball assigns free agents value each offseason and places them in two types (A and B). If a player signs with a new team in the offseason, his old team gets compensation from the player’s new team in the form of a draft pick. If the player is quality, his departure will leave the team a Type-A draft pick. Click here for a list of this year's Type A and B players. If the player’s new team finished outside of the bottom 15, the old team gets that team’s first-round pick. If the new team was among the 15 worst teams in the previous season, the team is given a sandwich pick. The sandwich pick comes after the first round and before the second, hence sandwich. In order to get compensation for their free agents, teams must offer the exiting player arbitration. Arbitration takes place before the new season begins. A player who is elligible for arbitration asks for a certain dollar figure he thinks his services are worth and his team counters with an offer of its own. An arbitrator settles the matter. If you want a more in-depth review of the process, click here.

Hot Stove League: Hot Stove refers the offseason moves and rumors of moves (trades, free agent signees).

40-Man roster: The 40-man roster protects players from selection in the Rule 5 Draft. The 40-man roster is made up of the 25-man rosters that make up each major league team. On top of their major league squads, teams select their 15 best, most major league-ready players. In September, all teams can expand their rosters to 40 players. These players, usually blue-chip prospects, must be added to the 40-man roster. Rosters expand after the minor league season ends.

Service clock: I may talk about this more in the future, but service time is the reason you don't want to call up any of your blue chips until they are ready to contribute. You have them for six years before they can bolt for free agency. Time starts the moment they hit the bigs, even when rosters expand in September.

Defensive Spectrum: Creditied to Bill James, the defensive spectrum ranks the positions on (and off) the baseball diamond according to their degree of difficulty. The DS is a good way to build your team. While it would be nice to have power along with great fielding at every position, chances are this isn't going to happen. Specialized fielders (to the left of the spectrum) tend to have their defensive prowess honored above their offensive abilities. If you look around the league, specialized positions such as shortstop (the No. 6 fielding position) and catcher (the No. 2 fielding position) are often the weakest links in a batting order. Finding power players at these positions frees up (so to speak) your need for power at less demanding defensive positions generally considered power positions. For example, when the Dodgers signed power-hitting Jeff Kent to play second base (traditionally a defense-first position) they could theoretically be forgiven for having a weaker first baseman. Some teams (see the Yankees) can buy it all. The Defensive Spectrum (minus the designated hitter abomination) listed from most specialized to least using scoring fielder designations. The idea is that it is easier for a poor defensive player to move from left to right rather than the reverse.

1(Pitcher)>2(catcher)>6(shortstop)>4(second baseman)>8(center fielder)>
5(third baseman)>9(right fielder)>7(left fielder)>3(first baseman)
or
1>2>6>4>8>5>9>7>3

I plan on doing a few more definitions before the season begins, and I'd like to do a little post about scorekeeping, which could keep you more interested in your next game.

The Finest Thing

When it's time, my love, let us go like this.

I've never been much of a smiler. I have a goofy-looking face, which is really driven home whenever I fail to stifle a laugh or I pose for a picture. Because I suffer from this facial handicap, it is often hard for me to express joy.

For me, joy often expressed itself in my gait. When I was really feeling good about something there would be a noticeable spring in my step.

For much of my life, this spring could be conjured only by what I refer to as a critical event. If I was under extreme pressure regarding a project or a dealine and I exceeded expectations, then I had the spring. If I performed extremely well during a high school baseball or basketball game, I had the spring. When I was babptized February 15, 1993 I had the spring. After high school, my spring mostly turned into a limp.

In 2001 I met Ashlee. If ever there was a smile that could sum up the artistic endeavours of the whole of the Rennaisance artists, it was hers. Eleven months after our introduction, I scribbled "I love you" on the foggy window of her Neon while she wasn't looking. Almost five years later I scabbed up my knee begging her to marry me. In three months I will stare into the eyes that have beheld my faults and my triumphs for the last five and a half years and tell my her and the God we both praise of my adoration for her and make to her the promises I will keep for the rest of my earthly life.

She is my wildly inventive valentine. She is my partner. She is my best friend. She is my selfless intended. She is an incredible influence on my life. She is my masterpiece. She is my example. She is my sweetly sung song. She is my undeserving gift. She is my critical event.

She is the now-continuous spring in my step.

Oscar Picks

Award season is often vastly overrated. Any award based on subjectivity is open to scrutiny (see Bowl Championship Series). Worst among the major award shows are the music honors. The Grammys only bother to nominate what's popular so people will watch. The Academy Awards, on the other hand, usually make honorable nominations. The top-grossing movies often get passed over; last year's top grosser "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" (an abyssmal waste of time) was nominated for only four "lesser" awards: sound mixing, sound editing, art direction and visual effects. Smaller grossing films such as "The Queen" and "Little Miss Sunshine" often rate higher with voters not because they are small, but because they are better made. I'd like to think that thinking is what drives all of the nominations, but several categories lead me to believe otherwise.

Each year I like to make my own Oscar picks. I love movies and go to the theater roughly 30 times a year to see the ones that really draw my interest. Each year after the nominations are announced I like to see what's nominated to inform my opinion. However, I won't pay to see a movie I know will not interest me. I am at a bit of a disadvantage this year as a lot of films that have been nominated I won't watch. This has happened in years past, but I still do reasonably well on my guesses because I have a decent feel for the industry's pulse. It also helps to keep up with professional handicappers and entertainment reporters.

There are 24 categories that make up the Academy Awards. The big four are Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress. Next for me, in order of importance, are Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Foreign Film. Next are the supporting actor awards, cinematography and film editing. Animated feature and original score round out my top awards, the rest are just filler (OK, original song's all right). I won't bother with editing, score or any of the other "lesser" awards.


Best Picture
Nominees: Babel, The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen
I've seen: The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima and Little Miss Sunshine
Slights: Apocalypto and Children of Men

The worst years for this category in my lifetime were 1998 (Titanic beat out L.A. Confidential) and 1999 (Shakespeare in Love beat out Saving Private Ryan and The Think Red Line). Many handicappers are picking Babel to win this year, but I think The Departed will get a boost in the end.

Will Win: The Departed (incredible, but crass, return to form)
Should Win: Letters from Iwo Jima (100x better than Flags of our Fathers)

Best Director
Nominees: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel), Martin Scorcese (The Departed), Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima), Stephen Frears (The Queen) and Paul Greengrass (United 93)
I've Seen: The Departed and Letters from Iwo Jima
Slights: Mel Gibson (Apocalypto), Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men) and Guillermo Del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth)
Will Win: Scorcese (but it's a close one)
Should Win: Letters from Iwo Jima (After seeing Flags of our Fathers, I doubted Eastwood's ability to shoot a war flick. I won't make the same mistake again.)

Best Actor
Nominees: Leo Dicaprio (Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Peter O'Toole (Venus), Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness) and Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
I've Seen: Blood Diamond and The Pursuit of Happyness
Slights: DiCaprio (The Departed), Christian Bale (The Prestige), Ken Watanabe (Letters from Iwo Jima) and Clive Owen (Children of Men)
Will Win: Whitaker (hands down)
Should Win: Tie: DiCaprio (I know some South Africans, and DiCaprio had this difficult accent down to a science. Plus, he manages to make you believe he could really be physically imposing.) and Smith (The final scenes in Happyness are some of the best acting I've seen in years.)

Best Actress
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) and Kate Winslet (Little Children)
I've Seen: None
Slights: Ivana Baquero (Pan's Labyrinth)
Will Win: Mirren (hands down)
Should Win: N/A

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) and Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)
I've Seen: Sunshine, Diamond and Departed.
Slights: Danny Huston (The Proposition), Michael Caine (Children of Men, The Presitge), Rufus Sewell (The Illusionist), Alec Baldwin (The Departed), Kazunari Ninomiya (Letters from Iwo Jima) and Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Will Win: Many pick Murphy, but I think Wahlberg will take it.
Should Win: (Tie) Wahlberg and Hounsou (too hard)

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Adriana Barraza (Babel), Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) and Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
I've Seen: Little Miss Sunshine
Slights: Thandie Newton (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Will Win: Hudson
Should Win: Breslin is great. She reminds me of my sister when she was younger.

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, Pan's Labyrinth and The Queen
I've Seen: Letters, Sunshine and Pan's Labyrinth
Slights: Apocalypto (You can watch this movie without words, brilliant). Brick (Chinatown for the college set. Very cool)
Will Win: Babel
Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth (Wildly inventive)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat, Children of Men, The Departed, Little Children and Notes on a Scandal.
I've Seen: Borat (half), Children of Men and The Departed.
Slights: The Prestige and The Illusionist.
Will Win: (Toughest category this year) The Departed (though Children of Men makes a strong case)
Should Win: The Departed (so much to keep track of, yet it doesn't spin out of control)

Best Foreign Film
Nominees: After the Wedding, Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Pan's Labyrinth and Water.
I've Seen: Pan's Labyrinth
Slights: L'Enfant and Curse of the Golden Flower
Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Cars, Happy Feet and Monster House
I've Seen: Cars and Monster House
Slights: Ice Age 2: The Meltdown
Will Win: Cars
Should Win: Cars

Cinematography
Nominees: The Black Dahlia, Children of Men, The Illusionist, Pan's Lanyrinth and The Presitige.
I've Seen: Children of Men, Illusionist, Pan's Labyrinth and Prestige.
Slights: Letters from Iwo Jima and Apocalypto (two of the biggest slights in this year's awards)
Will Win: Children of Men (Voters will recall the scene at the immigrant compound that features one long hand-held cut with blood on the camera. This may be the best-shot movie since Saving Private Ryan.)
Should Win: Children of Men (However, The Illusionist definitely earned its nomination. The old photograph look was inspired.)

Beauchamp's Top Films of 2006
1. Letters from Iwo Jima
2. Apocalypto
3. The Departed
4. The Prestige
5. Children of Men
6. The Proposition
7. Pan's Labyrinth
8. Blood Diamond
9. Brick
10. Curse of the Golden Flower
HM. L'Enfant, The Ilusionist, The Pursuit of Happyness and Cars.