Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

First spring games in two days...

I'd rather have the best rotation in baseball than the best lineup — unless I could have both. One man in a pitching rotation usually means a lot more to his team than one man in a lineup. The ideal rotation features Nos. 1-5 starters (although many, including me, believe the ideal rotation would feature only four starters).

There are far fewer than 30 No. 1 pitchers, so some teams have to try and compensate with depth rather than flash. Below are examples of starters for each traditional starting position (in strictest terms).
No. 1: Johan Santana: 18-7, 9.44 Ks per 9 innings, 1.00 whip, 5.21 K to Walk(BB) ratio, 2.77 ERA. The best pitcher in the game. Others: Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb and Roy Oswalt.
No. 2: Jason Schmidt: 11-9, 7.59 Ks per 9, 1.26 whip, 2.25 K/BB, 3.59 ERA. Was a No. 1 until last year. Others: Jake Peavy, John Lackey and Ben Sheets.
No. 3: Derek Lowe: 16-8, 1.27 whip, 2.29 K/BB, 3.63 ERA, 3.48 groundout/flyball out ratio. Lowe is really borderline between a No. 3 and a No. 2. Others: Jake Westbrook, Dan Haren and Greg Maddux.
No. 4: Gil Meche: 11-8, 7.52 Ks/9, 1.43 whip, 1.86 K/BB, 4.48 ERA. The $55 million man better become a No. 3 or No. 2 this year; he has the potential. Others: Joe Blanton, Woody Williams and David Wells.
No. 5: Jason Marquis: 16-14, 4.45 ks/9, 1.52 whip, 1.28 K/BB, 6.02 ERA. This is why the Cubs won't win. Others: Jeff Weaver, Casey Fossum and Jae Seo.

The Cream Rotations
Each team is categorized according this mix of subjective and objective factors: Depth (10), Potential (10), Stuff (10) and cold Stats (10). Stats will place less emphasis on ERAs (which can be overrated) and records. Park tendencies will also be taken into account.
1. Boston Red Sox: 38 pts. Depth (9), Potential (10), Stuff (10), Stats (9)
Last year's staff was a bit of a letdown, but this year features some new faces that will lead to instant improvement.
Curt Schilling is a known quantity, but he remains an injury risk.
Daisuke Matsuzaka has command of at least four pitches, and all were on display at the World Baseball Classic as he owned everyone. He is projected to be a No. 1 starter, but I'll have to see him pitch against the Yankees first.
Josh Beckett has disgusting stuff that should be back in form this year. Last year his ERA spiked, but everything else looked pretty good (he's only 26, after all).
Many people who think they know something about baseball have been complaining about Jonathon Papelbon's move to the rotation. Grow up. I would rather have a pitcher with his stuff give me six-seven innings each trip rather than one every few days. His slick slider and splitter combo should be sustainable over the extended innings. The only question is his health.
Tim Wakefield is the only real weak spot for the Red Sox. Knuckleballers either have it or they don't on any particular day. He'll get raked and he'll dominate intermittently all year.
Matt Clement is past his prime, but he might still have enough in the tank to spell one of these starters should they go down.

2. Anaheim Angels: 37 pts. Depth (10), Potential (10), Stuff (9), Stats (8)
The biggest problems the Halos face are injury and sustainability. If the youth movement holds, this team is death in the postseason.
Bartolo Colon won a Cy Young he didn't deserve two years ago. Last year he suffered a rotator cuff injury, and he is projected to miss the start of the season. Colon still throws heavy gas, and, when healthy, can pitch well over 200 innings.
John Lackey is the Angels' current ace. He coupled a 1.26 WHIP with a 3.56 ERA last year. He has a plus curve and a good fastball and change. And he's only 28. This should be his career year.
Kelvim Escobar probably won't throw more than 200 innings this year — he has a tendency to get injured — but when he pitches he is as solid a No. 3 as there is in the game. Great fastball, solid moving pitches.
The Angels saved themselves the heartache of watching Ervin Santana lead some other team through the postseason. Holding onto Santana was the Halos' best move. The 24-year-old was 16-8 with a 1.23 WHIP, and opponents batted only .241 against him. Best fastball on the team, maybe in the top five of the majors. He'll be No. 2 soon.
Jered Weaver, so far, is everything his brother Jeff should have been. The kid was part of the best rookie A.L. pitching class I've ever seen. Last year he went 11-2 with a ridiculous 1.03 WHIP and a 2.56 ERA. Opponents hit only .209 against him. He may letdown a bit this year, but not enough to worry.
On the horizon for the Angels is Nick Adenhart. He may be as good as Weaver and Santana. Book it.

3. (tie) Detroit Tigers: 34 pts. Depth (8), Potential (8), Stuff (8), Stats (10)
The World Series' surprise team boasted the best team ERA (3.84) in the majors last year.
How long will Kenny Rogers last? He's not a power pitcher, but he has enough in the tank to control a big league game. I just keep wondering if he's out of gas (or pine tar).
Jeremy Bonderman is a solid pitcher. He is a power pitcher with a plus fastball. He threw 8.5 Ks/9 last year and opponents hit only .259 against him. He'll be better this year (among the top eight pitchers), and he's only 24.
I still feel Nate Robertson is a little overrated. He's 29, so I don't see him improving much on last year's stats. His sub-4 ERA was solid, even for an overrated stat. He adds to the Tigers' depth, but he's not a big potential star, like the next guy.
Justin Verlander is the best young pitcher in the game. He will not decline this year. He has a fastball that touches 99 mph and a biting curveball. He was 17-9 last year and got the Tigers to the World Series. I picked him up as soon as he was available in all my fantasy leagues last year, and he made a genius out of me. If his arm holds (and the Tigers offense is better than it looks) he could win 20 games this year.
Mike Maroth is a far cry from his 20-loss season a few years back. That said, he has health issues and an underwhelming fastball.
Andrew Miller is the next real thing for the Tigers. If Rogers or Maroth go down, I could see Miller getting an early look ala Weaver and Matt Garza last year.

3. (tie) Los Angeles Dodgers: 34 pts. Depth (10), Potential (9), Stuff (8), Stats (7)
It should be an interesting year for my team. It's nice to root for a team whose biggest pitching problem is getting starts to everyone who deserves them.
Jason Schmidt is the Dodgers' first ace (loosely defined) since Kevin Brown. A down year for Schmidt included a 3.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and an opponents' batting average of .238. Schmidt will be solid, and if he's healthy, he could be dominant.
Derek Lowe is a great innings eater. His sinker is one of the better pitches in the game, and his 3.48 groundball to flyball ratio shows this. He is solid, not amazing. I've also noticed that he seems to get better after the All-Star break.
Brad Penny should be traded before the All-Star break for some power. Still, it's nice to have last year's All-Star game starter in the back pocket. Penny can throw a mean fastball (when it's on) and snap off a decent curve. The biggest knock on Penny is his disaster of a season after the All-Star break. You want pitchers to finish the race, not detour to the glue factory.
Randy Wolf is an interesting, if unnecessary, addition to the Dodgers rotation. In limited action last season after his Tommy John surgery, he was a bit of a letdown. It has been said that after pitchers have the kind of surgery he had, they can be a lot better than before they went under the knife. We'll see what shows up.
The fifth starter spot is up for grabs between four pitchers: Chad Billingsley, Hong-Chih Kuo, Mark Hendrickson and Brett Tomko. Tomko and Hendrickson really have no business back in this starting rotation, but they could fit in elsewhere. Billingsley performed reasonably well in his first year in the bigs. His walk tallies were high (and therefore WHIP), but opponents hit only .272 against him and he had a 3.80 ERA. He should continue to improve, no matter what role he earns. Kuo is my pick for the Dodgers' fifth starter. He had a very compelling stat line as a starter. In 29 innings as a starter, the lefty struck out 35 batters and walked only seven. He had a 1.19 WHIP and opponents hit only .257 against him.

5. Cleveland Indians: 32 pts. Depth (8), Potential (9), Stuff (8), Stats (7)
The A.L. Central will be the deepest division in baseball again. The Indians should contend for a Wild Card slot if the offense shows up.
C. C. Sabathia turned in an incredible, under-the-radar performance last year. If people focused on more than win-loss records, more may have noticed the most improved player last year. He owned a 3.22 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and boasted a 3.91 K/BB ratio. This guy became a No. 1 last year, and he's only 26!
Jake Westbrook had a bit of a ho-hum year for someone with a plus sinker. His ground/fly ratio was 2.72 and it could get better. Sinkerballers should always come away with wins and innings.
Cliff Lee was 14-11 last year, and that's all some people need to give him a silver star. He gets innings and he limits opponents' batting averages, but he doesn't blow me away as much as he does other cranks. He has a good mix of pitches, but none really scare me. He's no spare, but he's no Sabathia either.
Paul Byrd is over the hill at age 36. He's not a power pitcher like Clemens and Smoltz, and he's no Glavine or Maddux around the plate. Byrd's going to put balls in play and get injured. Tribe fans better hope Adam Miller matures fast.
Jeremy Sowers may be the fastest riser on the team. The kid is 23 years old, and he was the top dog on the Indians farmland last year. Sowers' innings were limited last year to preserve his arm (see Francisco Liriano and Felix Hernandez), but he should get a few more this year and excel. His rookie WHIP was 1.19 and allowed opponents only a .252 batting average. I think he'll win 15 games if he starts 25 (big IF).

Honorable Mention
6. San Diego Padres: Chris Young has "ace" written all over him. Jake Peavy should rebound from a down year.
7. Florida Marlins: No-hitter ring any bells? This is really the hardest team to leave off the top five. Look at these guys: Dontrelle Willis, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson and Scott Olsen. The only question is, will they let down?
8. Chicago White Sox: Traded Freddy Garcia for a bevy of young guns. Should turn out well.
9. New York Yankees: Does Chien-Ming Wang fall flat? Is Phillip Hughes everything everyone says he is?
(tie) 10. Philadelphia Phillies (Cole Hamels!) and Milwaukee Brewers (Sheets!, Gallardo!)