Spring Is Here

This is my first sports column in a few years. It will run in Friday's Bison. It's kind of weird.

I am a 12 year old covered in dirt.
I am the dashing, leaping, sliding, grinding, spitting, shouting wreck of prepubescent awkwardness made perfect for two hours. More if we go to extras.
I am the baron of the basepaths; the governor of glove; the dealer of doubles; the scourge of the squeeze; the bandito of base knocks.
I go from first to third. I tag on a pop up. I assume the double play.
I raise some chatter. I give 110. I hear “good eye.” I look alive.
I have a cork soul, and red stitching comprises my veins. I am sewn into this game like the lacing of a glove.
I am baseball. And all is right.

———————

I am a 16 year old nursing a blister.
I am the husky, determined, forceful, introspective, frustrated, pock-marked, gnasher of teeth set to put you back on your heels if you crowd my plate.
I am the sultan of the slider; the sorcerer of the four-seamer; the purveyor of punishment; the mayor of menace; the banisher of balk.
I circle my changeup. I break a 12-6 curve when the coach isn’t looking. I look you back to first base.
I throw high and tight. I throw low and away. I throw behind you.
I’m lively and tightly strung. I am rough and leathery, dimpled from taking my first big hits.
I am baseball. And I am the last hurrah.

––––––––––––––––

I am a 22 year old delaying a term paper.
I am the plodding, weak-armed, worried, preoccupied, lobber of softballs who claps for your fine catches of my hopeful line drives.
I am the caliph of congratulations; the pharaoh of fair play; the grandmaster of “good game, guys;” the dandy of diving and missing; the mystic of misjudgment.
I hit three fouls. I get under the ball. I focus on my schoolwork.
I make you “move in a bit, outfield.” I make you shift your infield. I take a strike and nod my agreement to the pitcher. I walk.
I am a dead ball knuckling to the fourth outfielder. I am replaced in the fifth because I’m not focused on the game.
I am baseball — sort of. And I am not going quietly.

––––––––––––––––

I am a 27 year old paying way too much for field level.
I am the all-seeing, number-crunching, score-keeping, box score bandit who’s going to buy some nachos in the middle of the fourth and petition the league to count the ground-rule double as a home run like back in the old days.
I am the champion of cheer; the sage of sabermetrics; the Berra of bleacher wisdom; the rabbi of rant; the herald of history.
I prognosticate. I compare splits. I scrawl a backwards K.
I stay up for the West Coast games. I add up OPS. I take a flier on a fantasy up-and-comer.
I am a doctored mass of rawhide ready to play — or watch — two. I am a wily veteran taking the field again and trying to stoke the fire.
I am 12. I am 16. I am 22.
I am covered in dirt.
I am baseball. And it’s nice to be back.

-30-

2008 Senior Circuit Primer

In March I feel like the primer button on lawn mower for about 30 days.

I just can't wait for real, now-it-counts baseball. March and its training just gets me champing at the bit. I'm nervous about spring injuries (Rafael Furcal) and antsy about waiting for position battles to be settled.

In lieu of having anything better to do with a late Thursday evening (and, let's face it, this really is a baseball blog with some personal anecdotes (read: lists) thrown in) I will lay out the prospects for the 2008 season according to my best estimation.

Part I: The National League

2007 Finish
N.L. West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72; Lost NLCS)
2. Colorado Rockies (90-73; Won Pennant)
3. San Diego Padres (89-74)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (82-80)
5. San Francisco Giants (71-91)

N.L. Central
1. Chicago Cubs (85-77; Lost NLDS)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
3. St. Louis (78-84)
4. Houston (73-89)
5. Cincinnati Reds (72-90)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94)

N.L. East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73; Lost in NLDS)
2. New York Mets (88-74)
3. Atlanta Braves (84-78)
4. Washington Nationals (73-89)
5. Florida Marlins (71-91)

2008 Projected Finish
N.L. West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (Win Pennant)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Wild Card)
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

N.L. Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers (Lose NLDS)
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Houston Astros
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. St. Louis Cardinals
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

N.L. East
1. New York Mets (Lose NLDS)
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Awards
MVP: Prince Fielder; Hanley Ramirez; Brandon Webb
Cy Young: Brandon Webb; Johan Santana; Chad Billingsley
Rookie of the Year: Joey Votto; Cameron Maybin
Manager of the Year: Ned Yost; Joe Torre
Comeback Player of the Year: Andruw Jones; Matt Clement

My N.L. All-Stud Team (1st; 2nd; 3rd)*
C - Russell Martin (LA); Brian McCann (Atl); Geovany Soto (Chi)
1B - Albert Pujols (Stl); Prince Fielder (Mil); Ryan Howard (Phi)
2B - Chase Utley (Phi); Brandon Phillips (Cin); Freddy Sanchez (Pit)
3B - David Wright (NY); Ryan Braun (Mil); Aramis Ramirez (Chi)
SS - Hanley Ramirez (Fla); Jose Reyes (NY); Jimmy Rollins (Phi)
OF1st - Matt Holliday (Col); Carlos Lee (Hou); Brad Hawpe (Col)
OF 2nd - Adam Dunn (Cin); Alfonso Soriano (Chi); Carlos Beltran (NY)
OF 3rd - Matt Kemp (LA); Eric Byrnes (AZ); Hunter Pence (Hou)
SP1st - Brandon Webb (AZ); Johan Santana (NY); Jake Peavy (SD)
SP2nd - Dan Haren (AZ); Chris Young (SD); Roy Oswalt (Hou)
SP3rd - Carlos Zambrano (Chi); Chad Billingsley (LA); Cole Hamels (Phi)
SP4th - Yovani Gallardo (Mil); Brad Penny (LA); Tim Lincecum (SF)
SP 5th - Aaron Harang (Cin); John Smoltz (Atl); Pedro Martinez (NY)
RP1 - Billy Wagner (NY); Takashi Saito (LA); Matt Capps (Pit)
RP2 - Trevor Hoffman (SD); Manny Corpas (Col); Jonathan Broxton (LA)
*This does not reflect fantasy studs (necessarily)

Youth Movement (Great young players on the rise)
• Justin Upton (AZ)
• Geovany Soto (Chi)
• Joey Votto (Cin)
• Homer Bailey (Cin)
• Ian Stewart (Col)
• Cameron Maybin (Fla)
• Andrew Miller (Fla)
• Hunter Pence (Hou)
• Matt Kemp (LA)
• James Loney (LA)
• Andy LaRoche (LA)
• Jonathon Meloan (LA)
• Yovani Gallardo (Mil)
• Manny Parra (Mil)
• Mike Zagurski (Phi)
• Phillip Humber (NY)
• Lastings Milledge (DC)
• Elijah Dukes (DC)
• Colby Rasmus (Stl)
• Chris Perez (Stl)
• Nate Schierholz (SF)
• Tim Lincecum (SF)

Notes:
• The Giants will lose 100 games or more this season. Brian Sabean will finally be fired.
• The Pirates will lose more games than the Marlins.
• When will the Pirates win again? Not in the foreseeable future. Their farm needs to be resown, and their ML staff is almost empty of parts to sell.
• The N.L. West is the second toughest division in baseball (A.L. Central is first). The weighted schedule is a horrifically unfair system that rewards average teams in weak divisions.
• Also horrifically unfair is interleague play. The Dodgers get to face the A.L. Central this year (not K.C.). Yipee.
• Arizona gets my nod this year in the NL because of their strong pitching and offensive potential. I guess I envision them putting it all together at the right time like the Rockies in 07.
• Brandon Webb is just sick. He will be great for years because of his nasty sinker.
• Atlanta better win this year because Glavine and Smoltz are all that spark in their rotation. Strike that, it's just Smoltz.
• The Cubs look good on paper, and I think they'll really be fighting it out with the Brewers for the Central (none of the other teams are any good). Until Soriano is ready to grow up and hit third, I'm just not that fearful. Felix Pie still has a lot to prove and Theriot is speed and speed (if you don't know by know, speed is ridiculously overrated). Ted Lilly won't be as good as last year, and who knows about possibly crazy Zambrano. I see Fukudome with this line: 23HR/70RBI/.350OBP/.450. Their rotation seems holey, but their bullpen is nice.
• The Brewers could have it all if Sheets starts 25-30 games. Fielder is mash, Braun is mash jr. Gallardo will be his generation's greatest pitcher (sorry). Hardy and Hart are hearty (and potential studs). The questions are bullpen and health, but no one outside of L.A. and S.D. can guarantee a great bullpen from year to year. I'm on Brewer Bandwagon.
• I will post separately on the Dodgers, but Andy LaRoche will be a solid three bagger. he's much better than Nomore Garciaparra. Also, look for a HUGE year out of James Loney (I'm kocking everything wooden in sight).
• I'm going to write about these things this season: making the ground-rule double a home run, killing interleague play and weighted schedules, signing service-timers to long term contracts before they reach free agency and starting up an old school baseball crank society.
• Bonds will play for the Giants sometime after the start of the season.
• Jose Reyes will steal 99 bases.
• The Rockies' pitching will fail them.
• Griffey Jr. will play in 110 games.
• Fielder and Dunn will each hit 50 homers.
• Fielder and Holliday will chase the triple crown.
• The National League will finally win the All-Star Game.

The Scrap Factor: Playoff Predictions

I have a theory about the World Series and who wins it:

The Scrap Factor.

There is a large contingent of baseball fans who choose to rely on mathematical, empirical evidence to determine a player — and by extension a team — who is desirable. These are players with OPSes over 850, VORPs over 40 and Runs Created in the 90-120 region. Unfortunately, not every team can afford a player with such a highly sought after skill set. Many teams choose to fill these holes with pablum. Often, players who fit this description are journeymen, AAAA players and "scrappy" players. The Scrap Factor hypothesis is built on the backs of the scrappy player.

A scrappy player is that player who dives for every batted ball, chatters up the outfield, runs out foul balls (not that there's anything wrong with that) and still thinks it's a good idea to try and bunt for a hit or steal a base. Roughly, the scrappy archetype is Tanner from "Bad New Bears." Scrappy players often have very low OPS numbers but are still called on to bat leadoff because "speed never slumps." These players often become fan favorites because fans can relate to them. For some reason, the players who make everything look difficult are the ones fans view as hard workers. It's sort of why I root for Batman (even though I would probably rather have Superman on my softball team).

But there may be another reason fans love the scrappy player: success. Here is a look at the 21st Century's World Series champions (2001-2006) and their scrappy contingent:

2001: Arizona Diamondbacks: Craig Counsell, Tony Womack(Big scrap year for the Snakes)
2002: Anaheim Angels: Darin Erstad, Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein (the Romulus of Scrap)
2003: Florida Marlins: Alex Gonzalez, Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre (the Remus of Scrap)
2004: Boston Red Sox: Johnny Damon, Poey Reese and Dave Roberts (Although they were/are a sabermetrically run team)
2005: Chicago White Sox: Tad Iguchi and Scott Podsednik (included in the Mt. Rushmore of Scrap with Pierre and Eckstein)
2006: St. Louis Cardinals: Aaron Miles, So Taguchi (just a terrible player) and old friend Eckstein.

Looking over this list (and at the opponents these scrappy teams knocked off) it becomes apparent that there may be some relation between scrap factor and postseason success (but not necessarily season success, hence the reason so many wild card teams have won the series in the past few years).

This year, the postseason teams feature several scraptastic players:
Anaheim Angels of Anaheim: Reggie Willits, Chone Figgins (may be headed for the Rushmore) and Maicer Izturis
Boston BandWagons: Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo (but both should have real value beyond scrap, which could hurt their scrap factor)
Cleveland Indians: Josh Barfield, Kenny Lofton and Grady Sizemore (Sizemore's sick real talent demolishes their scrap factor)
New York Yankees: A virtually no-scrap team. It's hurt them before.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eric Byrnes (Tanner in non-fiction) and Scott Hairston (and Stephen Drew is wining major scrap points this year)
Chicago Bandwagons: Ryan Theriot (and he's actually OK). Very small scrap factor (unless you include Fontenot).
Colorado Rockies: Jamey Carroll (on the bench) and Willy Taveras (injured) leave all the scrap on Kaz Matsui's shoulders. Small scrap offering.
Philadelphia Phillies: Shane Victorino (major scrap alert). I would like to include Jimmy Rollins, but that guy is awesome. There is no scrap to be found anywhere on him (except for the steals).

If I were picking based purely on the scrap factor this would be your World Series:
Angels (4) over Diamondbacks (1)

My real picks for the 2007 Postseason:
NLDS
Diamondbacks 3, Cubs, 1 (Pitching, 'Pen)
Rockies 3, Phillies 0 (Hitting, 'Pen)
NLCS
Diamondbacks 4, Rockies 2
ALDS
Red Sox 3, Angels 2 (Money)
Indians 3, Yankees 0 (Sabbathia)
ALCS
Red Sox 4, Indians 3
World Series
Red Sox 4, Diamondbacks 1 (MVP: Josh Beckett)

Soon: An awards season primer.

68 Percent of Baseball Players Are Kinda Dumb

What a Play-In game. Too bad I only saw 12.5 innings.

A recent Sports Illustrated poll asked 257 baseball players (nonpitchers) "Which individual hitting statistic is the most meaningful?"

Their answers:
No. 1 Runs Batted In (41%)
No. 2 On-Base Percentage (19%)
No. 3 Batting Average (13%)
No. 4 On-Base Plus Slugging OPS (11%)
No. 5 Runs (6%)
No. 6 Home Runs (4%)
No. 7 Batting average with runners in scoring position (2%)
No. 8 Tie: Two-Out RBIs, Slugging, Strikeouts

It's easy to see why traditionalists would label this stat so important. As an offensive athlete, the ability to produce a run for your team is paramount. Big RBI numbers, on the surface, appear to prove you can provide these runs. They make up the third prong of the Triple Crown in baseball, so that adds to the mystique. However, more than showing ability, a high RBI count is often indicative the high on-base percentage of others. Hence, RBI is mostly about opportunity. A meaningful statistic for offensive performers should be something that isolates their output to what is truly their output.

Depending on what I want out of a player (or where I am going to bat him), the most important of these traditional stats is going to be either OPS or on-base percentage. High in the order, I'll want my hitter who's best at getting on base. Later in the order I'll want someone who's going to drive the leadoff hitters in. This is why Juan Pierre is a spare as a leadoff batter. He makes far too many outs without getting on base. Hence, the Dodgers' "power hitters" have no one to drive in and our leading RBI man has 87. Both on-base and OPS take walks into account. The goal of baseball is to use your 27 outs wisely. The wisest way is to not use them (steals, bunts). OPS shows a good mix of power and the ability to get on base. If you don't go into deeper stats (such as VORP, Runs Created or EQA) OPS is the best way to judge a player's singular contribution. If I am a singles hitter or I'm a general manager who cannot afford to fill my roster with power hitters, I am going to focus on who can get on base so the power in my lineup will have someone to drive in.

General managers without the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs budget should always focus on limiting outs. Players who get on base avoid outs.

Steal The Man

Almost 50 and Rickey Henderson still owns it.

The Hall of Fame-lock wasn't about to give up the foul ball he snagged at AT&T Park on Monday. Can't say I blame him. I've probably attended 40-50 MLB games and I have yet to snag one. I've had a player at spring training toss me a BP ball, and I've found a practice puck under my seat at a hockey game, but I have yet to get my hands on a batted game ball.

On that fateful day when I finally reel one in, some kid will have to pry it from my cold, dead hand to get it from me.

Book it.

Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

First spring games in two days...

I'd rather have the best rotation in baseball than the best lineup — unless I could have both. One man in a pitching rotation usually means a lot more to his team than one man in a lineup. The ideal rotation features Nos. 1-5 starters (although many, including me, believe the ideal rotation would feature only four starters).

There are far fewer than 30 No. 1 pitchers, so some teams have to try and compensate with depth rather than flash. Below are examples of starters for each traditional starting position (in strictest terms).
No. 1: Johan Santana: 18-7, 9.44 Ks per 9 innings, 1.00 whip, 5.21 K to Walk(BB) ratio, 2.77 ERA. The best pitcher in the game. Others: Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb and Roy Oswalt.
No. 2: Jason Schmidt: 11-9, 7.59 Ks per 9, 1.26 whip, 2.25 K/BB, 3.59 ERA. Was a No. 1 until last year. Others: Jake Peavy, John Lackey and Ben Sheets.
No. 3: Derek Lowe: 16-8, 1.27 whip, 2.29 K/BB, 3.63 ERA, 3.48 groundout/flyball out ratio. Lowe is really borderline between a No. 3 and a No. 2. Others: Jake Westbrook, Dan Haren and Greg Maddux.
No. 4: Gil Meche: 11-8, 7.52 Ks/9, 1.43 whip, 1.86 K/BB, 4.48 ERA. The $55 million man better become a No. 3 or No. 2 this year; he has the potential. Others: Joe Blanton, Woody Williams and David Wells.
No. 5: Jason Marquis: 16-14, 4.45 ks/9, 1.52 whip, 1.28 K/BB, 6.02 ERA. This is why the Cubs won't win. Others: Jeff Weaver, Casey Fossum and Jae Seo.

The Cream Rotations
Each team is categorized according this mix of subjective and objective factors: Depth (10), Potential (10), Stuff (10) and cold Stats (10). Stats will place less emphasis on ERAs (which can be overrated) and records. Park tendencies will also be taken into account.
1. Boston Red Sox: 38 pts. Depth (9), Potential (10), Stuff (10), Stats (9)
Last year's staff was a bit of a letdown, but this year features some new faces that will lead to instant improvement.
Curt Schilling is a known quantity, but he remains an injury risk.
Daisuke Matsuzaka has command of at least four pitches, and all were on display at the World Baseball Classic as he owned everyone. He is projected to be a No. 1 starter, but I'll have to see him pitch against the Yankees first.
Josh Beckett has disgusting stuff that should be back in form this year. Last year his ERA spiked, but everything else looked pretty good (he's only 26, after all).
Many people who think they know something about baseball have been complaining about Jonathon Papelbon's move to the rotation. Grow up. I would rather have a pitcher with his stuff give me six-seven innings each trip rather than one every few days. His slick slider and splitter combo should be sustainable over the extended innings. The only question is his health.
Tim Wakefield is the only real weak spot for the Red Sox. Knuckleballers either have it or they don't on any particular day. He'll get raked and he'll dominate intermittently all year.
Matt Clement is past his prime, but he might still have enough in the tank to spell one of these starters should they go down.

2. Anaheim Angels: 37 pts. Depth (10), Potential (10), Stuff (9), Stats (8)
The biggest problems the Halos face are injury and sustainability. If the youth movement holds, this team is death in the postseason.
Bartolo Colon won a Cy Young he didn't deserve two years ago. Last year he suffered a rotator cuff injury, and he is projected to miss the start of the season. Colon still throws heavy gas, and, when healthy, can pitch well over 200 innings.
John Lackey is the Angels' current ace. He coupled a 1.26 WHIP with a 3.56 ERA last year. He has a plus curve and a good fastball and change. And he's only 28. This should be his career year.
Kelvim Escobar probably won't throw more than 200 innings this year — he has a tendency to get injured — but when he pitches he is as solid a No. 3 as there is in the game. Great fastball, solid moving pitches.
The Angels saved themselves the heartache of watching Ervin Santana lead some other team through the postseason. Holding onto Santana was the Halos' best move. The 24-year-old was 16-8 with a 1.23 WHIP, and opponents batted only .241 against him. Best fastball on the team, maybe in the top five of the majors. He'll be No. 2 soon.
Jered Weaver, so far, is everything his brother Jeff should have been. The kid was part of the best rookie A.L. pitching class I've ever seen. Last year he went 11-2 with a ridiculous 1.03 WHIP and a 2.56 ERA. Opponents hit only .209 against him. He may letdown a bit this year, but not enough to worry.
On the horizon for the Angels is Nick Adenhart. He may be as good as Weaver and Santana. Book it.

3. (tie) Detroit Tigers: 34 pts. Depth (8), Potential (8), Stuff (8), Stats (10)
The World Series' surprise team boasted the best team ERA (3.84) in the majors last year.
How long will Kenny Rogers last? He's not a power pitcher, but he has enough in the tank to control a big league game. I just keep wondering if he's out of gas (or pine tar).
Jeremy Bonderman is a solid pitcher. He is a power pitcher with a plus fastball. He threw 8.5 Ks/9 last year and opponents hit only .259 against him. He'll be better this year (among the top eight pitchers), and he's only 24.
I still feel Nate Robertson is a little overrated. He's 29, so I don't see him improving much on last year's stats. His sub-4 ERA was solid, even for an overrated stat. He adds to the Tigers' depth, but he's not a big potential star, like the next guy.
Justin Verlander is the best young pitcher in the game. He will not decline this year. He has a fastball that touches 99 mph and a biting curveball. He was 17-9 last year and got the Tigers to the World Series. I picked him up as soon as he was available in all my fantasy leagues last year, and he made a genius out of me. If his arm holds (and the Tigers offense is better than it looks) he could win 20 games this year.
Mike Maroth is a far cry from his 20-loss season a few years back. That said, he has health issues and an underwhelming fastball.
Andrew Miller is the next real thing for the Tigers. If Rogers or Maroth go down, I could see Miller getting an early look ala Weaver and Matt Garza last year.

3. (tie) Los Angeles Dodgers: 34 pts. Depth (10), Potential (9), Stuff (8), Stats (7)
It should be an interesting year for my team. It's nice to root for a team whose biggest pitching problem is getting starts to everyone who deserves them.
Jason Schmidt is the Dodgers' first ace (loosely defined) since Kevin Brown. A down year for Schmidt included a 3.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and an opponents' batting average of .238. Schmidt will be solid, and if he's healthy, he could be dominant.
Derek Lowe is a great innings eater. His sinker is one of the better pitches in the game, and his 3.48 groundball to flyball ratio shows this. He is solid, not amazing. I've also noticed that he seems to get better after the All-Star break.
Brad Penny should be traded before the All-Star break for some power. Still, it's nice to have last year's All-Star game starter in the back pocket. Penny can throw a mean fastball (when it's on) and snap off a decent curve. The biggest knock on Penny is his disaster of a season after the All-Star break. You want pitchers to finish the race, not detour to the glue factory.
Randy Wolf is an interesting, if unnecessary, addition to the Dodgers rotation. In limited action last season after his Tommy John surgery, he was a bit of a letdown. It has been said that after pitchers have the kind of surgery he had, they can be a lot better than before they went under the knife. We'll see what shows up.
The fifth starter spot is up for grabs between four pitchers: Chad Billingsley, Hong-Chih Kuo, Mark Hendrickson and Brett Tomko. Tomko and Hendrickson really have no business back in this starting rotation, but they could fit in elsewhere. Billingsley performed reasonably well in his first year in the bigs. His walk tallies were high (and therefore WHIP), but opponents hit only .272 against him and he had a 3.80 ERA. He should continue to improve, no matter what role he earns. Kuo is my pick for the Dodgers' fifth starter. He had a very compelling stat line as a starter. In 29 innings as a starter, the lefty struck out 35 batters and walked only seven. He had a 1.19 WHIP and opponents hit only .257 against him.

5. Cleveland Indians: 32 pts. Depth (8), Potential (9), Stuff (8), Stats (7)
The A.L. Central will be the deepest division in baseball again. The Indians should contend for a Wild Card slot if the offense shows up.
C. C. Sabathia turned in an incredible, under-the-radar performance last year. If people focused on more than win-loss records, more may have noticed the most improved player last year. He owned a 3.22 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and boasted a 3.91 K/BB ratio. This guy became a No. 1 last year, and he's only 26!
Jake Westbrook had a bit of a ho-hum year for someone with a plus sinker. His ground/fly ratio was 2.72 and it could get better. Sinkerballers should always come away with wins and innings.
Cliff Lee was 14-11 last year, and that's all some people need to give him a silver star. He gets innings and he limits opponents' batting averages, but he doesn't blow me away as much as he does other cranks. He has a good mix of pitches, but none really scare me. He's no spare, but he's no Sabathia either.
Paul Byrd is over the hill at age 36. He's not a power pitcher like Clemens and Smoltz, and he's no Glavine or Maddux around the plate. Byrd's going to put balls in play and get injured. Tribe fans better hope Adam Miller matures fast.
Jeremy Sowers may be the fastest riser on the team. The kid is 23 years old, and he was the top dog on the Indians farmland last year. Sowers' innings were limited last year to preserve his arm (see Francisco Liriano and Felix Hernandez), but he should get a few more this year and excel. His rookie WHIP was 1.19 and allowed opponents only a .252 batting average. I think he'll win 15 games if he starts 25 (big IF).

Honorable Mention
6. San Diego Padres: Chris Young has "ace" written all over him. Jake Peavy should rebound from a down year.
7. Florida Marlins: No-hitter ring any bells? This is really the hardest team to leave off the top five. Look at these guys: Dontrelle Willis, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Johnson and Scott Olsen. The only question is, will they let down?
8. Chicago White Sox: Traded Freddy Garcia for a bevy of young guns. Should turn out well.
9. New York Yankees: Does Chien-Ming Wang fall flat? Is Phillip Hughes everything everyone says he is?
(tie) 10. Philadelphia Phillies (Cole Hamels!) and Milwaukee Brewers (Sheets!, Gallardo!)

Spring Fever

Happy start of spring training!

For the next couple of months I’m going to focus most of my attention on the run up to baseball season. I think it’s important for me to briefly define a lot of the things I’ll be referring to during the season.

For the diehard fan, the information will be a bit of a refresher. For the casual fan, the info may answer some questions you did not know you had. For non-fans, read and join the ranks of the baseball cranks.

Terms to know:
Pitchers and catchers: No professional sport has a preseason quite like baseball. In 1886 the White Stockings headed to Hot Springs, Ark., for what may be the first instance of spring training. Around the middle of February, teams compel their batteries (a battery is the combo of the pitcher and catcher) to show up before the rest of the team to prepare for the coming season. Teams also set an early reporting date for position players soon after pitchers and catchers report. The mandatory reporting date for all players is usually during the week following the pitchers and catchers' reporting date.

Grapefruit and Cactus leagues: Since Spring Training begins in the middle of winter, teams set up their spring headquarters in either Florida or Arizona. Florida has been the most popular destination, especially for East Coast teams. Arizona has gained popularity in recent years because teams are often closer together and weather is more stable. Currently, 18 teams make up the Grapefruit League (Florida citrus), and 12 headquarter in the Cactus League (Arizona flora). Grapefruit teams play other Grapefruit teams and Cactus teams do the same.

MLB Draft (AKA Rule 4): Major League Baseball takes two days in June to run through at least 50 rounds of first-year player selection. Draft order is compiled according to the previous year's won-loss records. The draft often includes sandwich rounds between the first few rounds. During this time, teams may select newly graduated high school seniors or juniors and seniors from the college ranks. Foreign players are usually signed outside of the draft. The MLB Draft is not nearly as highly regarded as those of the NBA and NFL. This is because it takes even the highest draft picks years to break into the majors. The draft may not be as exciting, but the MLB minor league system is the stuff of dreams for the NFL and NBA. After players are drafted, they will sign a bonus and report to a rookie-level team or they will refuse to sign and enter or return to college and maintain their amateur designation. First-round picks can expect signing bonuses in excess of $2 million.

Rule 5 Draft: The Rule 5 draft is held each year in during baseball's Winter Meetings. The Rule 5 was established in order to allow more movement among players. The Rule 5 helps good players see playing time when they’re stuck in the minor leagues behind stars on their original team’s depth chart. The Rule 5 consists of one round in which teams can select one player from any other team’s minor league system. The players cannot be on the team’s 40-man roster. To protect their best players, teams will often add their best up-and-coming players to the roster just before the Rule 5. After the teams make their selections from the other teams, they have to pay $50k for the player and keep him on their 25-man roster for the entire season. If the player doesn’t stay with the major league team, they team that selected him must offer him back to his original team at a discounted rate. If the original team doesn’t want the player back, the new team can add him to their minor league rosters. The most successful recent Rule 5 draftee was multiple Cy Young winner Johan Santana, whom the Marlins drafted from the Houston Astros and traded to the Twins. It's also worth mentioning that the Dodgers lost farmhand Roberto Clemente through the very same system.

Player compensation: Major League Baseball assigns free agents value each offseason and places them in two types (A and B). If a player signs with a new team in the offseason, his old team gets compensation from the player’s new team in the form of a draft pick. If the player is quality, his departure will leave the team a Type-A draft pick. Click here for a list of this year's Type A and B players. If the player’s new team finished outside of the bottom 15, the old team gets that team’s first-round pick. If the new team was among the 15 worst teams in the previous season, the team is given a sandwich pick. The sandwich pick comes after the first round and before the second, hence sandwich. In order to get compensation for their free agents, teams must offer the exiting player arbitration. Arbitration takes place before the new season begins. A player who is elligible for arbitration asks for a certain dollar figure he thinks his services are worth and his team counters with an offer of its own. An arbitrator settles the matter. If you want a more in-depth review of the process, click here.

Hot Stove League: Hot Stove refers the offseason moves and rumors of moves (trades, free agent signees).

40-Man roster: The 40-man roster protects players from selection in the Rule 5 Draft. The 40-man roster is made up of the 25-man rosters that make up each major league team. On top of their major league squads, teams select their 15 best, most major league-ready players. In September, all teams can expand their rosters to 40 players. These players, usually blue-chip prospects, must be added to the 40-man roster. Rosters expand after the minor league season ends.

Service clock: I may talk about this more in the future, but service time is the reason you don't want to call up any of your blue chips until they are ready to contribute. You have them for six years before they can bolt for free agency. Time starts the moment they hit the bigs, even when rosters expand in September.

Defensive Spectrum: Creditied to Bill James, the defensive spectrum ranks the positions on (and off) the baseball diamond according to their degree of difficulty. The DS is a good way to build your team. While it would be nice to have power along with great fielding at every position, chances are this isn't going to happen. Specialized fielders (to the left of the spectrum) tend to have their defensive prowess honored above their offensive abilities. If you look around the league, specialized positions such as shortstop (the No. 6 fielding position) and catcher (the No. 2 fielding position) are often the weakest links in a batting order. Finding power players at these positions frees up (so to speak) your need for power at less demanding defensive positions generally considered power positions. For example, when the Dodgers signed power-hitting Jeff Kent to play second base (traditionally a defense-first position) they could theoretically be forgiven for having a weaker first baseman. Some teams (see the Yankees) can buy it all. The Defensive Spectrum (minus the designated hitter abomination) listed from most specialized to least using scoring fielder designations. The idea is that it is easier for a poor defensive player to move from left to right rather than the reverse.

1(Pitcher)>2(catcher)>6(shortstop)>4(second baseman)>8(center fielder)>
5(third baseman)>9(right fielder)>7(left fielder)>3(first baseman)
or
1>2>6>4>8>5>9>7>3

I plan on doing a few more definitions before the season begins, and I'd like to do a little post about scorekeeping, which could keep you more interested in your next game.

Sundries

• If it's going to snow, I wish it would just quit wasting my time.

• Last week we mourned the passing of the world's oldest person. The week before that we mourned the passing of the world's oldest person. The week before that we mourned the passing of the world's oldest person. The week before that we mourned the passing of the world's oldest person. The week before that we mourned...

• ESPN.com is reporting this week on the most novel use of the iPod to come along since it was discovered that iPods can cure cancer while solving world hunger. Apparently pitchers for the Colorado Rockies are using their video iPods between innings to study up on their upcoming opponents. Judging by some of the Rockies pitchers' WHIPs, perhaps they were actually catching up on episodes of "The Office."

• A little known fact about this year's "American Idol" is that it is being broadcast from Malebolge, with only a slight delay. Watch for it tonight at 8 p.m./7 p.m. Central/6:66 p.m. Eighth Circle.

• Hillary Clinton brought Cesar Borja to last week's State of the Union Address. She's trying to appeal to the Machiavellian voters.

• Pitchers & Catchers: 14 days.