Oscar Picks 09

Best Picture Nominees:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- The Reader
- Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win/Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Overlooked: WALL-E, The Dark Knight, Gran Torino, Doubt, The Changeling.

Best Director:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher
- Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
- Milk, Gus Van Sant
- The Reader, Stephen Daldry
- Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle
Should Win/Will Win: Boyle
Overlooked: Eastwood (Changeling and Gran Torino), Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight), Andrew Stanton (WALL-E)

Best Actor
- Richard Jenkins in The Visitor
- Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
- Sean Penn in Milk
- Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler
Should Win: Only seen Visitor and Benjamin Button (both actors performed well, not exceptionally.
Will Win: Mickey Rourke
Overlooked: Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino), Robert Downey Jr. (Iron Man), Chiwetel Ejiofor (Redbelt), Dev Patel (Slumdog), Colin Ferrell and Brendan Gleeson (In Bruges)

Best Actress
- Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
- Angelina Jolie in Changeling
- Melissa Leo in Frozen River
- Meryl Streep in Doubt
- Kate Winslet in The Reader
Should Win: Meryl Streep
Will Win: Kate Winslet
Overlooked: Freida Pinto (Slumdog)

Best Supporting Actor
- Josh Brolin in Milk
- Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder
- Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
- Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
- Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road
Should Win/Will Win: Heath Ledger
Overlooked: Jason Butler Harner (Changeling), Gary Oldman (The Dark Knight), Ralph Fiennes (In Bruges)

Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams in Doubt
- Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- Viola Davis in Doubt
- Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler
Should Win: Viola Davis
Will Win: Penelope Cruz
Overlooked: Hiam Abbass (The Visitor), Amy Ryan (Changeling)

Animated Feature
- Bolt
- Kung Fu Panda
- WALL-E
Should Win/Will Win: WALL-E

Art Direction
- Changeling
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- The Duchess
- Revolutionary Road
Will Win: Benjamin Button

Cinematography
- Changeling
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- The Reader
- Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Benjamin Button

Costume Design
- Australia
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Duchess
- Milk
- Revolutionary Road
Will Win: Benjamin Button

Documentary Feature:
- The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
- Encounters at the End of the World
- The Garden
- Man on Wire
- Trouble the Water
Will Win: Man On Wire

Documentary Short Subject
- The Conscience of Nhem En
- The Final Inch
- Smile Pinki
- The Witness
Will Win: The Conscience of Nhem En

Film Editing
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog

Best foreign language film of the year
- The Baader Meinhof Complex
- The Class
- Departures
- Revanche
- Waltz with Bashir
Will Win: Waltz with Bashir

Achievement in makeup
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Will Win: Benjamin Button

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Defiance
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire
- WALL-E
Will Win: Slumdog

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
- “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E”
- “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire”
- “O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire”
Will Win: WALL-E

Best animated short film
- “La Maison en Petits Cubes”
- “Lavatory - Lovestory”
- “Oktapodi”
- “Presto”
- “This Way Up”
Will Win: ummm Presto

Best live action short film
- “Auf der Strecke (On the Line)”
- “Manon on the Asphalt”
- “New Boy”
- “The Pig”
- “Spielzeugland (Toyland)”
Will Win: New Boy

Achievement in sound editing
- “The Dark Knight”
- “Iron Man”
- “Slumdog Millionaire”
- “WALL-E”
- “Wanted”
Will Win: WALL-E

Achievement in sound mixing
- “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
- “The Dark Knight”
- “Slumdog Millionaire”
- “WALL-E”
- “Wanted”
Will Win: WALL-E

Achievement in visual effects
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”
Will Win: Benjamin Button

Adapted screenplay
- “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
- “Doubt”
- “Frost/Nixon”
- “The Reader”
- “Slumdog Millionaire”
Will Win: Slumdog
Should Win: Doubt

Original screenplay
“Frozen River”
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
“In Bruges”
“Milk”
“WALL-E”
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: WALL-E

2008 Senior Circuit Primer

In March I feel like the primer button on lawn mower for about 30 days.

I just can't wait for real, now-it-counts baseball. March and its training just gets me champing at the bit. I'm nervous about spring injuries (Rafael Furcal) and antsy about waiting for position battles to be settled.

In lieu of having anything better to do with a late Thursday evening (and, let's face it, this really is a baseball blog with some personal anecdotes (read: lists) thrown in) I will lay out the prospects for the 2008 season according to my best estimation.

Part I: The National League

2007 Finish
N.L. West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72; Lost NLCS)
2. Colorado Rockies (90-73; Won Pennant)
3. San Diego Padres (89-74)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (82-80)
5. San Francisco Giants (71-91)

N.L. Central
1. Chicago Cubs (85-77; Lost NLDS)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
3. St. Louis (78-84)
4. Houston (73-89)
5. Cincinnati Reds (72-90)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94)

N.L. East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73; Lost in NLDS)
2. New York Mets (88-74)
3. Atlanta Braves (84-78)
4. Washington Nationals (73-89)
5. Florida Marlins (71-91)

2008 Projected Finish
N.L. West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (Win Pennant)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Wild Card)
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

N.L. Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers (Lose NLDS)
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Houston Astros
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. St. Louis Cardinals
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

N.L. East
1. New York Mets (Lose NLDS)
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Awards
MVP: Prince Fielder; Hanley Ramirez; Brandon Webb
Cy Young: Brandon Webb; Johan Santana; Chad Billingsley
Rookie of the Year: Joey Votto; Cameron Maybin
Manager of the Year: Ned Yost; Joe Torre
Comeback Player of the Year: Andruw Jones; Matt Clement

My N.L. All-Stud Team (1st; 2nd; 3rd)*
C - Russell Martin (LA); Brian McCann (Atl); Geovany Soto (Chi)
1B - Albert Pujols (Stl); Prince Fielder (Mil); Ryan Howard (Phi)
2B - Chase Utley (Phi); Brandon Phillips (Cin); Freddy Sanchez (Pit)
3B - David Wright (NY); Ryan Braun (Mil); Aramis Ramirez (Chi)
SS - Hanley Ramirez (Fla); Jose Reyes (NY); Jimmy Rollins (Phi)
OF1st - Matt Holliday (Col); Carlos Lee (Hou); Brad Hawpe (Col)
OF 2nd - Adam Dunn (Cin); Alfonso Soriano (Chi); Carlos Beltran (NY)
OF 3rd - Matt Kemp (LA); Eric Byrnes (AZ); Hunter Pence (Hou)
SP1st - Brandon Webb (AZ); Johan Santana (NY); Jake Peavy (SD)
SP2nd - Dan Haren (AZ); Chris Young (SD); Roy Oswalt (Hou)
SP3rd - Carlos Zambrano (Chi); Chad Billingsley (LA); Cole Hamels (Phi)
SP4th - Yovani Gallardo (Mil); Brad Penny (LA); Tim Lincecum (SF)
SP 5th - Aaron Harang (Cin); John Smoltz (Atl); Pedro Martinez (NY)
RP1 - Billy Wagner (NY); Takashi Saito (LA); Matt Capps (Pit)
RP2 - Trevor Hoffman (SD); Manny Corpas (Col); Jonathan Broxton (LA)
*This does not reflect fantasy studs (necessarily)

Youth Movement (Great young players on the rise)
• Justin Upton (AZ)
• Geovany Soto (Chi)
• Joey Votto (Cin)
• Homer Bailey (Cin)
• Ian Stewart (Col)
• Cameron Maybin (Fla)
• Andrew Miller (Fla)
• Hunter Pence (Hou)
• Matt Kemp (LA)
• James Loney (LA)
• Andy LaRoche (LA)
• Jonathon Meloan (LA)
• Yovani Gallardo (Mil)
• Manny Parra (Mil)
• Mike Zagurski (Phi)
• Phillip Humber (NY)
• Lastings Milledge (DC)
• Elijah Dukes (DC)
• Colby Rasmus (Stl)
• Chris Perez (Stl)
• Nate Schierholz (SF)
• Tim Lincecum (SF)

Notes:
• The Giants will lose 100 games or more this season. Brian Sabean will finally be fired.
• The Pirates will lose more games than the Marlins.
• When will the Pirates win again? Not in the foreseeable future. Their farm needs to be resown, and their ML staff is almost empty of parts to sell.
• The N.L. West is the second toughest division in baseball (A.L. Central is first). The weighted schedule is a horrifically unfair system that rewards average teams in weak divisions.
• Also horrifically unfair is interleague play. The Dodgers get to face the A.L. Central this year (not K.C.). Yipee.
• Arizona gets my nod this year in the NL because of their strong pitching and offensive potential. I guess I envision them putting it all together at the right time like the Rockies in 07.
• Brandon Webb is just sick. He will be great for years because of his nasty sinker.
• Atlanta better win this year because Glavine and Smoltz are all that spark in their rotation. Strike that, it's just Smoltz.
• The Cubs look good on paper, and I think they'll really be fighting it out with the Brewers for the Central (none of the other teams are any good). Until Soriano is ready to grow up and hit third, I'm just not that fearful. Felix Pie still has a lot to prove and Theriot is speed and speed (if you don't know by know, speed is ridiculously overrated). Ted Lilly won't be as good as last year, and who knows about possibly crazy Zambrano. I see Fukudome with this line: 23HR/70RBI/.350OBP/.450. Their rotation seems holey, but their bullpen is nice.
• The Brewers could have it all if Sheets starts 25-30 games. Fielder is mash, Braun is mash jr. Gallardo will be his generation's greatest pitcher (sorry). Hardy and Hart are hearty (and potential studs). The questions are bullpen and health, but no one outside of L.A. and S.D. can guarantee a great bullpen from year to year. I'm on Brewer Bandwagon.
• I will post separately on the Dodgers, but Andy LaRoche will be a solid three bagger. he's much better than Nomore Garciaparra. Also, look for a HUGE year out of James Loney (I'm kocking everything wooden in sight).
• I'm going to write about these things this season: making the ground-rule double a home run, killing interleague play and weighted schedules, signing service-timers to long term contracts before they reach free agency and starting up an old school baseball crank society.
• Bonds will play for the Giants sometime after the start of the season.
• Jose Reyes will steal 99 bases.
• The Rockies' pitching will fail them.
• Griffey Jr. will play in 110 games.
• Fielder and Dunn will each hit 50 homers.
• Fielder and Holliday will chase the triple crown.
• The National League will finally win the All-Star Game.