The Scrap Factor: Playoff Predictions

I have a theory about the World Series and who wins it:

The Scrap Factor.

There is a large contingent of baseball fans who choose to rely on mathematical, empirical evidence to determine a player — and by extension a team — who is desirable. These are players with OPSes over 850, VORPs over 40 and Runs Created in the 90-120 region. Unfortunately, not every team can afford a player with such a highly sought after skill set. Many teams choose to fill these holes with pablum. Often, players who fit this description are journeymen, AAAA players and "scrappy" players. The Scrap Factor hypothesis is built on the backs of the scrappy player.

A scrappy player is that player who dives for every batted ball, chatters up the outfield, runs out foul balls (not that there's anything wrong with that) and still thinks it's a good idea to try and bunt for a hit or steal a base. Roughly, the scrappy archetype is Tanner from "Bad New Bears." Scrappy players often have very low OPS numbers but are still called on to bat leadoff because "speed never slumps." These players often become fan favorites because fans can relate to them. For some reason, the players who make everything look difficult are the ones fans view as hard workers. It's sort of why I root for Batman (even though I would probably rather have Superman on my softball team).

But there may be another reason fans love the scrappy player: success. Here is a look at the 21st Century's World Series champions (2001-2006) and their scrappy contingent:

2001: Arizona Diamondbacks: Craig Counsell, Tony Womack(Big scrap year for the Snakes)
2002: Anaheim Angels: Darin Erstad, Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein (the Romulus of Scrap)
2003: Florida Marlins: Alex Gonzalez, Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre (the Remus of Scrap)
2004: Boston Red Sox: Johnny Damon, Poey Reese and Dave Roberts (Although they were/are a sabermetrically run team)
2005: Chicago White Sox: Tad Iguchi and Scott Podsednik (included in the Mt. Rushmore of Scrap with Pierre and Eckstein)
2006: St. Louis Cardinals: Aaron Miles, So Taguchi (just a terrible player) and old friend Eckstein.

Looking over this list (and at the opponents these scrappy teams knocked off) it becomes apparent that there may be some relation between scrap factor and postseason success (but not necessarily season success, hence the reason so many wild card teams have won the series in the past few years).

This year, the postseason teams feature several scraptastic players:
Anaheim Angels of Anaheim: Reggie Willits, Chone Figgins (may be headed for the Rushmore) and Maicer Izturis
Boston BandWagons: Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo (but both should have real value beyond scrap, which could hurt their scrap factor)
Cleveland Indians: Josh Barfield, Kenny Lofton and Grady Sizemore (Sizemore's sick real talent demolishes their scrap factor)
New York Yankees: A virtually no-scrap team. It's hurt them before.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eric Byrnes (Tanner in non-fiction) and Scott Hairston (and Stephen Drew is wining major scrap points this year)
Chicago Bandwagons: Ryan Theriot (and he's actually OK). Very small scrap factor (unless you include Fontenot).
Colorado Rockies: Jamey Carroll (on the bench) and Willy Taveras (injured) leave all the scrap on Kaz Matsui's shoulders. Small scrap offering.
Philadelphia Phillies: Shane Victorino (major scrap alert). I would like to include Jimmy Rollins, but that guy is awesome. There is no scrap to be found anywhere on him (except for the steals).

If I were picking based purely on the scrap factor this would be your World Series:
Angels (4) over Diamondbacks (1)

My real picks for the 2007 Postseason:
NLDS
Diamondbacks 3, Cubs, 1 (Pitching, 'Pen)
Rockies 3, Phillies 0 (Hitting, 'Pen)
NLCS
Diamondbacks 4, Rockies 2
ALDS
Red Sox 3, Angels 2 (Money)
Indians 3, Yankees 0 (Sabbathia)
ALCS
Red Sox 4, Indians 3
World Series
Red Sox 4, Diamondbacks 1 (MVP: Josh Beckett)

Soon: An awards season primer.