An Incredible Story

I often struggle with cynicism in my life. I'm not sure why it is such a temptation for me, but it is and I wish it weren't. The true pain of cynicism is to discredit sincerity and sometimes love. When these are discredited, I sometimes feel an emotional disconnect in my faith; if you discredit sincerity and love, how can you truly appreciate the sacrifice of God's only Son?

I'm sitting in a hotel room in Kansas City an emotional wreck having just read this story. I am blown away by the love given to be shared among mere mortals. It speaks of God. I have heard people speak of love languages before, especially during marriage counseling. Tonight I feel that love is holy language. It is the only response worthy of utterance; the height of expression is simply love.

To read this story and hear of the lives touched by the sacrifice of one, I am reminded of a savior taken unjustly and made to be donor for our sake; that one should be given so that all may live.

And I am silenced before an inconceivable God

Most worthy of praise

And He is One

The Scrap Factor: Playoff Predictions

I have a theory about the World Series and who wins it:

The Scrap Factor.

There is a large contingent of baseball fans who choose to rely on mathematical, empirical evidence to determine a player — and by extension a team — who is desirable. These are players with OPSes over 850, VORPs over 40 and Runs Created in the 90-120 region. Unfortunately, not every team can afford a player with such a highly sought after skill set. Many teams choose to fill these holes with pablum. Often, players who fit this description are journeymen, AAAA players and "scrappy" players. The Scrap Factor hypothesis is built on the backs of the scrappy player.

A scrappy player is that player who dives for every batted ball, chatters up the outfield, runs out foul balls (not that there's anything wrong with that) and still thinks it's a good idea to try and bunt for a hit or steal a base. Roughly, the scrappy archetype is Tanner from "Bad New Bears." Scrappy players often have very low OPS numbers but are still called on to bat leadoff because "speed never slumps." These players often become fan favorites because fans can relate to them. For some reason, the players who make everything look difficult are the ones fans view as hard workers. It's sort of why I root for Batman (even though I would probably rather have Superman on my softball team).

But there may be another reason fans love the scrappy player: success. Here is a look at the 21st Century's World Series champions (2001-2006) and their scrappy contingent:

2001: Arizona Diamondbacks: Craig Counsell, Tony Womack(Big scrap year for the Snakes)
2002: Anaheim Angels: Darin Erstad, Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein (the Romulus of Scrap)
2003: Florida Marlins: Alex Gonzalez, Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre (the Remus of Scrap)
2004: Boston Red Sox: Johnny Damon, Poey Reese and Dave Roberts (Although they were/are a sabermetrically run team)
2005: Chicago White Sox: Tad Iguchi and Scott Podsednik (included in the Mt. Rushmore of Scrap with Pierre and Eckstein)
2006: St. Louis Cardinals: Aaron Miles, So Taguchi (just a terrible player) and old friend Eckstein.

Looking over this list (and at the opponents these scrappy teams knocked off) it becomes apparent that there may be some relation between scrap factor and postseason success (but not necessarily season success, hence the reason so many wild card teams have won the series in the past few years).

This year, the postseason teams feature several scraptastic players:
Anaheim Angels of Anaheim: Reggie Willits, Chone Figgins (may be headed for the Rushmore) and Maicer Izturis
Boston BandWagons: Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo (but both should have real value beyond scrap, which could hurt their scrap factor)
Cleveland Indians: Josh Barfield, Kenny Lofton and Grady Sizemore (Sizemore's sick real talent demolishes their scrap factor)
New York Yankees: A virtually no-scrap team. It's hurt them before.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eric Byrnes (Tanner in non-fiction) and Scott Hairston (and Stephen Drew is wining major scrap points this year)
Chicago Bandwagons: Ryan Theriot (and he's actually OK). Very small scrap factor (unless you include Fontenot).
Colorado Rockies: Jamey Carroll (on the bench) and Willy Taveras (injured) leave all the scrap on Kaz Matsui's shoulders. Small scrap offering.
Philadelphia Phillies: Shane Victorino (major scrap alert). I would like to include Jimmy Rollins, but that guy is awesome. There is no scrap to be found anywhere on him (except for the steals).

If I were picking based purely on the scrap factor this would be your World Series:
Angels (4) over Diamondbacks (1)

My real picks for the 2007 Postseason:
NLDS
Diamondbacks 3, Cubs, 1 (Pitching, 'Pen)
Rockies 3, Phillies 0 (Hitting, 'Pen)
NLCS
Diamondbacks 4, Rockies 2
ALDS
Red Sox 3, Angels 2 (Money)
Indians 3, Yankees 0 (Sabbathia)
ALCS
Red Sox 4, Indians 3
World Series
Red Sox 4, Diamondbacks 1 (MVP: Josh Beckett)

Soon: An awards season primer.

VENT Vol. 1

I just paid my first parking violation ticket in my now seven years at this university. I have never parked where I wasn't supposed to.

Two weeks ago my wife was suffering with immense back pain after aggravating a disc injury she's had since she was in college. The problem is very debilitating, and it is very painful for her to do anything other than be still. Because she started a new job a little more than a month ago, she can't really miss more than the day and a half she already had. One thing that is difficult for her when she suffers this pain is driving. Ashlee's car is standard, and the herky-jerky motion required to drive this kind of engine especially hurts her. She asked me to drive her car last Monday so she could drive my automatic to work. I agreed and found a faculty/staff park with it when I returned to work.

I returned to the car after work and found two tickets pressed between the windshield and the wiper blade. One was a $15 citation for "parking in a staff or reserved slot." The other was a $30 charge for having a "sticker not visible/improperly registered." At this point I was not angry; how was anyone to know my predicament?

Printed on the ticket is a Web address where I could go and pay or appeal my fine. I assumed
that — given the circumstances and the fact that my faculty-stickered car was not currently taking up a spot — the fines would be dismissed with a wave and a smile if not with a reminder that the car should be registered. I made my case, told how I was a faculty member parking in a faculty spot and I even related my wife's back troubles. This morning I received judgment:

The $15 citation:
"After a careful review of your citation appeal, the Traffic Appeals Committee has decided to accept your appeal. All charges for this traffic citation will be removed from your record. Put a note in the window so the officer will know. The sticker allows the car to park in faculty staff parking not your title." (But the title deems me worthy of stickering in the first place. Which came first, the sticker or the hire?)

The $30 citation:
"After a careful review of your citation appeal, the Traffic Appeals Committee has decided to reduce the amount of your citation fine. Please remit payment for the citation within 10 days to avoid late fees. You may pay for the citation online at ... or you may pay in the Business Office. (sic) Stidkers are free and take just minutes to obtain online. Register the car and put a sticker in the windshield."

My fine was reduced to $15. Maybe I'll take a few extra pens and notebooks home from the office to balance the books.

68 Percent of Baseball Players Are Kinda Dumb

What a Play-In game. Too bad I only saw 12.5 innings.

A recent Sports Illustrated poll asked 257 baseball players (nonpitchers) "Which individual hitting statistic is the most meaningful?"

Their answers:
No. 1 Runs Batted In (41%)
No. 2 On-Base Percentage (19%)
No. 3 Batting Average (13%)
No. 4 On-Base Plus Slugging OPS (11%)
No. 5 Runs (6%)
No. 6 Home Runs (4%)
No. 7 Batting average with runners in scoring position (2%)
No. 8 Tie: Two-Out RBIs, Slugging, Strikeouts

It's easy to see why traditionalists would label this stat so important. As an offensive athlete, the ability to produce a run for your team is paramount. Big RBI numbers, on the surface, appear to prove you can provide these runs. They make up the third prong of the Triple Crown in baseball, so that adds to the mystique. However, more than showing ability, a high RBI count is often indicative the high on-base percentage of others. Hence, RBI is mostly about opportunity. A meaningful statistic for offensive performers should be something that isolates their output to what is truly their output.

Depending on what I want out of a player (or where I am going to bat him), the most important of these traditional stats is going to be either OPS or on-base percentage. High in the order, I'll want my hitter who's best at getting on base. Later in the order I'll want someone who's going to drive the leadoff hitters in. This is why Juan Pierre is a spare as a leadoff batter. He makes far too many outs without getting on base. Hence, the Dodgers' "power hitters" have no one to drive in and our leading RBI man has 87. Both on-base and OPS take walks into account. The goal of baseball is to use your 27 outs wisely. The wisest way is to not use them (steals, bunts). OPS shows a good mix of power and the ability to get on base. If you don't go into deeper stats (such as VORP, Runs Created or EQA) OPS is the best way to judge a player's singular contribution. If I am a singles hitter or I'm a general manager who cannot afford to fill my roster with power hitters, I am going to focus on who can get on base so the power in my lineup will have someone to drive in.

General managers without the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs budget should always focus on limiting outs. Players who get on base avoid outs.